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Nicolas Jerry

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  • eye on haiti

    via Marginal Revolution by Tyler Cowen on 1/7/12

    Gambling everything, thousands of Haitians have made their way across the Americas to reach small towns in the Brazilian Amazon over the past year in a desperate search for work, including a surge of hundreds arriving in recent days amid fears that Brazil’s government could slow the influx before it overwhelms the authorities here…Companies like Fibratec, a swimming pool manufacturer in southern Santa Catarina State, have even sent managers all the way here to hire dozens of Haitians.

    The excellent article is here.  Via Carl-Henri Prophete, here is another story, of an Irish billionaire working to build up Haiti:

    Digicel, on the other hand, is the country’s largest employer and taxpayer. The privately held company has invested $600 million in Haiti, making it by far the country’s largest foreign investor ever, and it has democratized communications with its strategy of selling low-price cellphones and services to the masses.

    Mr. O’Brien has profited extensively from Haiti, which is Digicel’s largest market and accounts for roughly one-third of its 11.1 million subscribers.

    …Digicel, for instance, has put up street signs in parts of Port-au-Prince, serving as reminders of the company’s role in public life as much as guides for navigating the city.

    Most mornings, people crowd around the reception desk of Digicel’s office building, not to complain about the firm’s services but to see the mayor and other city officials whose offices are on the sixth floor since the earthquake.

    The company provides the space rent-free, Mayor Jean-Yves Jason said, and gave the city computers and furniture. “We have plans to build a new city hall in downtown Port-au-Prince, but we are so comfortable here it is easy to delay,” Mr. Jason joked.

    The article gives some other stories of growing foreign investment in Haiti.  Here is Twitter and the Haitian earthquake response.  Also via Carl-Henri, here is a Le Monde article on the Haitian elite, and here is their excellent slide show.

    I have been reading and enjoying Laurent Dubois’s new Haiti: The Aftershocks of History, one of the very best books on the history of the country.  In 1914-15, about eighty percent of the government’s revenue went to debt service.  It is one of those rare books where you can know a lot about the topic, and yet still learn something interesting on virtually every page.

    Permalink | Leave a comment  »

    18 days on
    i.want.world
  • keeping cool

    Suppose our minds have a hot state and a cool state. In the cool state we are rational and make calculated tradeoffs between immediate rewards and payoffs that require investment of time and effort. But when the hot state takes over we abandon deliberation and just react on instinct.

    The hot state is there because there are circumstances where the stakes are too high and our calculations too slow or imperfect. You are being attacked by a hungry lion, the food in front of you smells funky, that bridge looks unstable. No matter how confident your cool head might be, the hot state grabs the wheel and forces you to do the safe thing.

    Suppose all of that is true. What does that mean when a situation looks borderline and you see that instincts haven't taken over? Your cool, calculating head rationally infers that this must be a safer situation than it would otherwise appear. And you are therefore inclined to take more risks.

    But then the hot state better step in on those borderline situations to stop you from taking those excessive risks. Except that now the borderline has moved a little bit toward the safe end. Now when the hot state doesn't take over it means its even more safe, etc.

    And of course there is the mirror image of this problem where the hot state takes over to make sure you take an urgent risk. A potential mate is in front of you but the encounter has questionable implications for the future and the potential consequences are incomputable as so far as within the current situation. Physical attraction receives a multiplier. If it is not overwhelming then all of the warning signs are magnified.

    Permalink | Leave a comment  »

    24 days on
    i.want.world
  • WTO Rules and the Role of the State in the Economy

    From a statement (Word doc) by Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela at the WTO Ministerial:

    5.    Trade is a tool and not an end in itself.  The Preamble to the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization, which lays down the general objectives of the multilateral trading system, confirms its strictly instrumental nature.  Approaching it in any other way would irrevocably lead to a scenario of extreme trade liberalization among economies with large differences in productivity and competitiveness and thus to the destruction of the productive base of developing countries.

    6.    States have a positive role to play in stimulating economic development, which goes beyond creating the conditions for the market to function properly.  All along the path to development, developed Members of this Organization have been pursuing and continue to pursue policies aimed at promoting economic restructuring and productivity growth, that is to say, explicit public interventions in the economy.

    7.    Therefore, in seeking to achieve prosperous, more egalitarian and stable societies, our countries, as developing countries, should have sufficient space for the application of such policies, and that space should be guaranteed in the multilateral trading system.  More specifically, any regular or negotiating activity in the WTO and any interpretation of its Agreements should be carried out in the context of the wider economic and development-related needs, policies and objectives of developing Members, as well as their external environment.

    Is this a radical critique of the trade regime as it stands now, or simply a description of how things generally function in most economies?  What kind of public intervention do they want to undertake that is constrained by existing WTO rules?

  • Bird Poop

    With.. Spalt, Hungary will have the most capable risk manager anyone can hope for. His experience and persistence are a guarantee that our subsidiary in Hungary will soon be seeing less risky times.


    Can someone please ask this guy what in the world does he mean?

    Can he really claim that one person - one person alone - with his stupendous skills at tackling risk, his immense foresight for intelligently deciphering future economic outcomes can lessen risks? I implore you to please see the bogus narrative in that quote above. Where are the watchdogs of critical thinking? Laughable.

    Permalink | Leave a comment  »

    ~1 month on
    i.want.world
  • The EC - Aircraft Article 21.5 Complaint

    is here: http://www.worldtradelaw.net/cr/ds316-19(cr).pdf

    Here's the key part:

    On 1 December 2011, the EU transmitted a document ("EU Notification") to the United States purporting to explain how the EU has complied with the recommendations and rulings of the DSB.  The United States has carefully reviewed the notification and considers that the actions and instances of inaction set out therein failed to  withdraw the subsidies or remove their adverse effects.  In addition, US review of the EU Notification indicates that the EU and certain member States are providing subsidies with respect to the  production and development of large civil aircraft that are inconsistent with the SCM Agreement.  In particular, the following subsidies are being accorded by the EU and certain member States:

    • forgiveness of outstanding obligations to the Governments of France, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom under LA/MSF agreements for the A300B, A300B2/B4, A300-600, A310, A310-300, A320, A330/A340 Basic, A330-200, and A340-500/600;

    • termination of French, German, Spanish, and UK LA/MSF agreements for the A300B, A300B2/B4, A300-600, A310, A310-300, A320, A330/A340 Basic, A330-200, and A340-500/600 on non-commercial terms or in a manner that did not withdraw the subsidy;

    • French, German, Spanish, and UK LA/MSF agreements for the A380;

    • French, German, Spanish, and UK LA/MSF for double-aisle large civil aircraft, including the A350XWB;

    • the 1987, 1988, 1992, and 1994 French capital contributions into Aérospatiale;

    • KfW’s 1989 capital contribution into Deutsche Airbus GmbH and the 1992 transfer by KfW of its 100 percent equity interest in Deutsche Airbus to MBB;

    • Spanish regional development grants to the EADS/CASA facilities at La Rinconada/San Pablo, Tablada, and Puerto de Santa Maria, Spain, and the Airbus España, S.L. facilities in Illescas and Puerto Real;

    • German regional development grant for an A380-related facility of Airbus Deutschland GmbH in Nordenham, Germany;

    • use of the runway extensions at Bremen Airport under the amended taking off and landing fee schedule;

    • use by Airbus of the Mühlenberger Loch industrial site subject to the amended lease agreement between Airbus Deutschland GmbH and Projektierungsgesellschaft Finkenwerder mbH & Co. KG;

    • subsequent share transactions and cash transactions and cash extractions involving subsidy recipients;

    • subsequent investments in Airbus A320 and A330 large civil aircraft programs;  and

    • any amendments, revisions, implementing or related measures to the subsidies described above.

    The United States considers that the actions and events listed in the EU Notification do not withdraw the subsidies or remove their adverse effects for purposes of Article 7.8 of the SCM Agreement and that the EU has therefore failed to implement the DSB’s recommendations and rulings.  The United States further considers that the EU subsidies listed above are inconsistent with Articles 3.1(a), 3.1(b), 5(c), 6.3(a), 6.3(b), and 6.3(c) of the SCM Agreement.

  • More Chinese AD Duties that Might be Challenged at the WTO

    From Bloomberg:

    China announced plans to impose anti-dumping duties on some vehicles imported from the U.S. after failing to block a U.S. tariff on Chinese tires.

    Punitive duties will be as high as 12.9 percent for autos from General Motors Co. and 8.8 percent for Chrysler Group LLC, China’s commerce ministry said today on its website. The U.S. units of Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Daimler AG will face duties of 2 percent and 2.7 percent respectively, it said.

    BMW led declines among European automakers on concern higher duties may deter sales in the world’s largest car market. ...

    ...

    BMW and Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz both build sport-utility vehicles at U.S. factories for global export. BMW is expanding its factory in South Carolina to produce as many as 300,000 X5, X6, and X3 SUVs next year from 270,000 in 2011.

    The Daimler unit plans to invest $2.4 billion between 2010 and 2014 at its plant in Alabama to add equipment for the assembly of the C-Class sedan. The company currently makes the M-Class and GL SUVs as well as the R-Class wagon at the site. The plant produced 125,400 vehicles in 2010.

    BMW doesn’t expect the new import duties to have a significant impact on its sales in China, spokesman Mathias Schmidt said by phone, calling the tariffs “regrettable”. Daimler’s Mercedes is reviewing the potential impact from the duties, spokeswoman Bettina Singhartinger said.

  • and on weather forecasts

    via Cafe Hayek by Russ Roberts on 12/13/11

    Two hurricane forecasters admit that while their models fit beautifully in hindsight, they were incapable of predicting the future (HT: John Hiller):

    Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice because it doesn’t work.

    William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value.

    The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities as hurricane seasons approach — a much more cautious approach. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do next.

    Gray, recently joined by Klotzbach, has been known for decades for an annual forecast of how many hurricanes can be expected each official hurricane season (which runs from June to November.) Southerners hang on his words, as even a mid-sized hurricane can cause billions in damage.

    Last week, the pair dropped this announcement out of a clear, blue sky:

    “We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year … Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”

    I salute Klotzbach and Gray for their integrity.

    Interestingly, I can only find mainstream media coverage of this story in the Ottawa Citizen and a blog at the Houston Chronicle.

    Permalink | Leave a comment  »

    ~1 month on
    i.want.world
  • Investor State Claims and Libertarian Utopias

    The Economist reports that two libertarian groups are looking to develop libertarian cities in Honduras:

    ... In addition to a big special development region, the Honduran government intends to approve two smaller zones. And two libertarian-leaning start-ups have already signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding with the Honduran government to develop them.

    One firm goes by the name of Future Cities Development Corporation. It was co-founded by Patri Friedman, a grandson of Milton Friedman, a Nobel laureate in economics, and until recently executive director of the Seasteading Institute, a group producing research on how to build ocean-based communes. The other is called Grupo Ciudades Libres (Free Cities Group) and is the brainchild of Michael Strong and Kevin Lyons, two entrepreneurs and libertarian activists.

    Both share a purpose: to build “free cities”. Last April all three spoke at a conference organised by Universidad Francisco Marroquín, a libertarian outfit in Guatemala. In September they and Giancarlo Ibárgüen, the university’s president, launched the Free Cities Institute, a think-tank, to foster the cause.

    ...

    Yet the biggest hurdle for the libertarian start-ups may be that the transparency commission, which will oversee the development regions, is unlikely to give them free rein. The “constitutional statute” for the development zones, which the Honduran national congress passed in August, does not leave much wiggle room in key areas, not least when it comes to democracy: ultimately their citizens will vote. 

    If relations between the libertarian "free cities" and Honduras don't go well, could we see a CAFTA investor-state complaint?

  • International Balanced Budget Amendments

    From Reuters:

     Europe secured an historic agreement to draft a new treaty for deeper economic integration in the euro zone on Friday ...

    Twenty-six of the 27 EU leaders agreed to pursue a tougher budget discipline regime with automatic sanctions for deficit sinners in the single currency area ...

    "This is a breakthrough to a union of stability," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. "We will use the crisis as a chance for a new beginning."

    ...

    [European Council President Herman] Van Rompuy said the summit's key achievement was to tighten fiscal limits, including the need for countries to bring budgets close to balance.

    "It means reinforcing our rules on excessive deficit procedures by making them more automatic. It also means that member states would have to submit their draft budgetary plans to the (European) Commission," Van Rompuy said.

    Assuming that (some) EU states can reach agreement on this, I wonder, could such an agreement ever take place on a global scale?

     

  • International Balanced Budget Amendments

    From Reuters:

     Europe secured an historic agreement to draft a new treaty for deeper economic integration in the euro zone on Friday ...

    Twenty-six of the 27 EU leaders agreed to pursue a tougher budget discipline regime with automatic sanctions for deficit sinners in the single currency area ...

    "This is a breakthrough to a union of stability," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. "We will use the crisis as a chance for a new beginning."

    ...

    [European Council President Herman] Van Rompuy said the summit's key achievement was to tighten fiscal limits, including the need for countries to bring budgets close to balance.

    "It means reinforcing our rules on excessive deficit procedures by making them more automatic. It also means that member states would have to submit their draft budgetary plans to the (European) Commission," Van Rompuy said.

    Assuming that (some) EU states can reach agreement on this, I wonder, could such an agreement ever take place on a global scale?

     

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